Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee firmed up further against the pound sterling
Mutual funds' average cash holdings in equity schemes topped 6 per cent in February as fund managers went slow on deployment of new inflows on expectations of better buying opportunities amid uncertainties in the market.
Most sought-after market of the past few years doesn't feature among top bets in Asia, emerging markets
In August, domestic equity markets garnered one of the highest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, despite the US Federal Reserve standing firm on unwinding its stimulus measures to control inflation. FPIs pumped in over Rs 51,000 crore ($6.4 billion) in August, the most since December 2020 and the third-highest tally since March 2020-the month the Covid-19 pandemic roiled global markets. This was the second consecutive month of positive foreign flows. In the preceding nine months, FPIs had yanked out over $32 billion or Rs 2.2 trillion.
Except for liquidity, which could act in favour or against the market in the short term, most market participants are bullish.
Equity markets will be driven by the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, analysts said. Moreover, equity benchmarks will also continue to be guided by foreign fund movement and trend in Brent crude oil, they added. "The global markets are looking nervous after the US inflation numbers, which have caused the dollar index to hover around 110," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. Now everyone is eyeing the outcome of the upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The rupee had gained 40 paise to close at an eight-month high of 59.91 against the dollar on Friday.
'It is unlikely that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) might increase their India allocation, given the overweight status for most FPIs.' 'Given the commentary from the Republican Party, an anti-imports approach means money will not flow out of the US.'
The rupee had gained five paise to close at 63.25 against the dollar in on Monday's trade on fresh selling of the US currency by exporters amid bullish stocks.
The Indian equity markets will soon account for over a fifth of a key emerging market (EM) benchmark tracked by funds with assets exceeding $500 billion. This development is expected to funnel as much as $3 billion into the domestic markets. Following the latest review undertaken by global index provider MSCI, India's weighting in the MSCI EM index will surpass 20 per cent for the first time, narrowing its gap with the current top-weighted China to fewer than 400 basis points.
'The inflow of FII or FDI has not distorted the market sentiments and therefore there is no question of putting any curbs.'
Foreign direct investment in India has increased by about 35 per cent to $13.6 billion during the first half of 2013 with merger and acquisitions accounting for the bulk of inflows, says an UNCTAD report.
The OCCRP report alleges that at one point, EIFF and EMRF held free-floating shares ranging from 8 per cent to nearly 14 per cent in the four Adani Group companies.
Given the concerns around trade wars that threaten to jeopardise global capital flows as well, attracting foreign capital needs to be a policy priority, says Neelkanth Mishra.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pumped in Rs 1.7 trillion into domestic stocks in 2023, one of the highest net inflows ever witnessed during a calendar year, of which 25 per cent went into the direct buying of stocks. Data provided by depository NSDL revealed that Rs 44,950 crore of the total FPI flows last year went into primary issuances. A large portion of the FPI investments through the stock exchange route went into block deals, thereby reducing the actual investments made via direct buying of stocks. Last year saw selldowns or block deals worth Rs 2 trillion.
Forex dealers said increased selling of the American currency by exporters and banks supported the rupee but a lower opening of the domestic equity market and dollar's rise against other currencies overseas restricted the gains.
Forex dealers said besides increased selling of the American currency by exporters and banks, the dollar's weakness against other currencies overseas also supported the rupee, but a lower opening in the domestic equity market limited the rise.
The RBI under former governor Shaktikanta Das resisted pressures to cut interest rates through 2024 as it kept its 'Arjuna's eye' trained on inflation, but the central bank under a new detail-oriented head will soon have to take a call if it can continue sacrificing growth. Das, a career bureaucrat who in 2016 oversaw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly disruptive demonetisation move, left a lasting legacy as he demitted office towards the end of 2024 after expertly navigating monetary policy for six years, the highlight of which was steering India's recovery through the pandemic.
Foreign capital flows into the Indian real estate jumped over three-fold to $23.9 billion during 2017-21 period as compared to the previous five years, according to Colliers-FICCI report. In its report 'Foreign investments in Indian real estate turn a corner', property consultant Colliers mentioned that the global investors have shown an increased inclination towards investment in Indian real estate buoyed by regulatory reforms introduced in 2016. "Foreign investors, who had previously refrained from investing in the Indian real estate market due to the lack of transparency, started investing in the country with greater optimism from 2017," Colliers said.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
On instructions from Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the Intelligence Bureau has taken up the task of identifying sudden quantum jump in the foreign money flowing in the country through withdrawals by foreigners on credit and debit cards issued by the foreign banks.
The flow of deposits from non-resident Indians (NRIs) hit a four-year low in the financial year 2020-21 mainly due to contraction in foreign currency deposits, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows. Total NRI deposits during FY21 were $7.3 billion as compared to $8.6 billion in FY20 - the lowest since 2016-17, when such deposits had contracted by $12.3 billion. Indian banks have three kinds of deposit accounts where NRIs or PIOs (persons of Indian origin) can park their funds: non-resident external-rupee account (NRE); non-resident ordinary rupee account (NRO); and foreign currency non-resident bank account (FCNR [B]).
HDFC Bank's latest shareholding data showed that the room for foreign investment has fallen just 5 basis points short of the threshold set by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to fully include the stock in its indices. Currently, the index provider has applied an adjustment factor of 0.5 since the foreign room is less than 25 per cent. Removal of the adjustment factor will result in inflows of a massive $4.8 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) into HDFC Bank, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
In a remarkable comeback, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 1.7 lakh crore into the Indian equity markets in 2023, propelled by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals amid a challenging global landscape. The year 2023 has witnessed massive investment by FPIs, thanks to the sharp uptick in inflows of Rs 66,134 crore in December. Going forward, FPI flows are expected to be robust.
With no major domestic market moving triggers this week, equities would continue to look at global factors, foreign fund movement and trend in the rupee for further direction, analysts said. "This week we have the August month F&O expiry where bulls are looking for rest after a gain in the August series," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. "There are not a lot of triggers but global cues, August month F&O expiry, and FIIs' behaviour will be important factors in the direction of the market," he noted.
FIIs pump in $1.4 billion in March, after pulling out $2.9 billion in Jan-Feb.
In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
After turning net buyers last month, foreign investors have become aggressive shoppers of Indian equities and have invested Rs 22,452 crore in the first two weeks of August amid softening inflation concerns. This was way higher than a net investment of nearly Rs 5,000 crore by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in the entire month of July, data with depositories showed. FPIs had turned net buyers for the first time in July, after nine straight months of massive net outflows, which started in October last year.
It boosts confidence to investors sitting on the fence.
The rupee had lost 26 paise to close at 60.16 against the dollar yesterday on fresh dollar demand from banks and importers in view of the US currency gaining overseas and weakness in local equities.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
The exports in 2022-2023 was $79 billion, compared to imports of $50 billion.
Among the Sensex firms, Tata Motors jumped over 3 per cent. Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the other major gainers. NTPC, Asian Paints, Titan and Power Grid were among the laggards.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 20,170 crore ($2.4 billion) recently. This marked the fifth-highest weekly outflow from overseas funds since the beginning of 2008 and the largest since the last week of March 2020. Due to the Covid scare, FPIs had sold shares worth Rs 21,951 crore during that week, causing the market to decline by nearly 20 per cent.
Institutional investments in real estate may fall 20 per cent to $4 billion during this calendar year because of a higher inflow of funds in 2020, according to property consultant JLL India. During the January-September period, the institutional investment rose to $2,977 million from $1,534 million in the year-ago period. "Unless some large portfolio deals are not inked at the end of the year, annual investments are expected to be in the $3.8-4 billion range in 2021," JLL said in a statement. Institutional investments managed to cross the $5 billion mark in 2020 due to large portfolio deals worth $3.2 billion during the last quarter of the year.
Over 25 per cent of the net flows have been directed toward the large-cap category as investors preferred to put money in the top 100 stocks by market capitalisation because the segment has been the most resilient over the past year.
CLSA managing director & equity strategist Christopher Wood, and executive director Mahesh Nandurkar tell Puneet Wadhwa that the markets could give a return of around 10 per cent from the current level over the next year.
Global funds have pumped in over Rs 38,000 crore (about $5.5 billion) into domestic equities since February 20, helping the Sensex rebound 2,671 points, or 7.6 per cent, from its 2019 low.
